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N1H1 Situation Update - Sept 29th


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Received this email from Veratect a communicable disease tracking group. Focusing on N1H1 but also other communicable diseases. I have contact info if anyone wants to be placed on their email list.

US H1N1 Situation Update- Sept 29th

United States H1N1 Situation Update- Sept 29, 2009

Background

Veratect issued advisories on July 27th and August 6th documenting indications of an apparent resurgence of H1N1 from latitudes in the southern hemisphere, then across the equator to Mexico, followed by reporting inside the southern US. Veratect’s advisory posted on July 27th stated an expectation that reports of resurgence would be documented at the southern US border within one to two weeks. This occurred 10 days later.

Veratect documented multiple school-based outbreaks of H1N1 in multiple states within days of first classes beginning in mid-August, an expected finding based on observations during the 1957 and 1968 pandemics in the United States. This was presented as evidence of resurgence, and later validated by epidemiological data. Of particular note, much of this reporting was in southern states that began classes early in the season, during a time when migrant worker southern border crossings peaked. It is unclear which of these events contributed the most to community transmission in the southern states.

Current Situation

Veratect sources report on 28 September that the "second wave" of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is now prevalent across most of the United States. Officials from the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report that the virus is "spreading widely throughout the US" with 26 states experiencing widespread influenza activity, compared to 21 reported the week prior. Clusters continue to affect schools prompting closures. Sources report that 42 school closures were issued in eight states on 25 September alone. Much of the country is now moderately optimized for transmission based on meteorological parameters and approaching optimization.

Local experiences with the pandemic remain highly varied, and it is unknown to what extent protective herd immunity has been achieved in those communities now reporting decreased transmission.

Sources report that a vaccine for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 may be available as early as the first week of October, and officials are already establishing systems to track adverse reactions. Harvard Medical School, Johns Hopkins University and CDC will all seek information directly from vaccine recipients and insurance companies recording doctor’s visits post-vaccine to capture any instance of adverse reaction. Public health activists are also advising that vaccinations should target over 11 million illegal immigrants currently residing in the US, since their unvaccinated status could increase the health risk of others.

Veratect sources report that federal investigations have determined that, despite months of planning, several local governments are not prepared to handle a surge of patients or quickly distribute vaccine. Areas where resources are lacking include volunteer health care workers, systems to track hospital equipment and beds, and plans for handling emergency department overflow. Sources also report that state and federal officials are drafting guidance on how doctors should triage a scarce supply of ventilators and pulmonary bypass machines (ECMO) that would be needed during a severe pandemic.

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You know what would be great but will never happen? If they actually tested the sick to find out if they had H1N1 and not just the flu. But like I said its not happening this state has stopped testing all flu like symptoms (except for the deadly ill) for the dreaded swine flu. So now everyone with flu like symptoms are being classified as having the horrid swine flu even when they don't. Welcome to the pandemic of the normal flu season.

How many people knew that some states like Massachusetts and New Hampshire have stopped testing 99% of the suspected cases? Don't worry I am sure there are a hell of a lot more states out there that have also stopped testing and are just lumping everyone into the same category of sickness.

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You know what would be great but will never happen? If they actually tested the sick to find out if they had H1N1 and not just the flu. But like I said its not happening this state has stopped testing all flu like symptoms (except for the deadly ill) for the dreaded swine flu. So now everyone with flu like symptoms are being classified as having the horrid swine flu even when they don't. Welcome to the pandemic of the normal flu season.

How many people knew that some states like Massachusetts and New Hampshire have stopped testing 99% of the suspected cases? Don't worry I am sure there are a hell of a lot more states out there that have also stopped testing and are just lumping everyone into the same category of sickness.

Well with some of the same symptoms as flu it's no wonder that they aren't testing anyone much anymore.

Our hospital doesn't even have a rapid N1H1 flu test. So we can't test anyway. Of course we can send it out but those results come back 24-72 hours later and by then the worst part of the illness is over.

Let's just treat everyone with the symptoms of flu or swine flu and go from there.

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Well with some of the same symptoms as flu it's no wonder that they aren't testing anyone much anymore.

Our hospital doesn't even have a rapid N1H1 flu test. So we can't test anyway. Of course we can send it out but those results come back 24-72 hours later and by then the worst part of the illness is over.

Let's just treat everyone with the symptoms of flu or swine flu and go from there.

That is exactly what I mean they don't know how many are the regular flu and how many are the actual H1N1. I just can't stand them all saying that there is an estimate of so many people having the swine flu yet they are not actually sure. There is no facts to these statements they are sending out. Just to show you what I mean I will copy a article from the past week.

Mass. estimates 20,000 swine flu cases

First vaccine shipment set to arrive next week

Updated: Thursday, 01 Oct 2009, 10:05 AM EDT

Published : Thursday, 01 Oct 2009, 10:05 AM EDT

WORCESTER, Mass. (AP) - An estimated 20,000 Massachusetts residents have already contracted the swine flu and the number is likely to rise in coming months.

Gov. Deval Patrick said during a swine flu conference held in Worcester on Wednesday that the state has already taken steps to help curb the spread, including ordering its first vaccine shipment, set to arrive next week.

The initial number of vaccinations is small -- up to 50,000 doses meant for health care workers -- but additional batches should continue arriving weekly through the flu season.

Public health officials say the 20,000 number is based on the fact that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated 1 million cases in the U.S. and Massachusetts is 2 percent of the national population.

The state has stopped testing for the disease.

and just so no one says anything here is the link wwlp

Now don't get me wrong I am not disagreeing with you in anyway. I do see it as a waste of resources to test everyone with flu like symptoms. I just don't like that they are playing this out to be a huge pandemic yet they don't have the numbers to support such a finding. They are riding the numbers of the normal flu cases we have every year all year and making them all out to be what they want them to.

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Let me add a quesiton to this debate

How long does it take for the N1H1 flu vaccination to take effect?

Is it within a day or so or is it over a period of weeks or longer?

How long does it take for the vaccination to be completely in effect?

If states are not testing for this flu then why are we so up in arms about it. How will they come up with the valid numbers to show pandemic or not.

Are we gonna trust the government's numbers of swine flu when we aren't testing for it????

It seems like any number that the government comes up with in any situation is always wrong anyway so do we trust the governments numbers anyway?

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Let me add a quesiton to this debate

How long does it take for the N1H1 flu vaccination to take effect?

Is it within a day or so or is it over a period of weeks or longer?

How long does it take for the vaccination to be completely in effect?

If states are not testing for this flu then why are we so up in arms about it. How will they come up with the valid numbers to show pandemic or not.

Are we gonna trust the government's numbers of swine flu when we aren't testing for it????

It seems like any number that the government comes up with in any situation is always wrong anyway so do we trust the governments numbers anyway?

Exactly now you know my train of thought.

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You are all going to like this one.

Critics: H1N1 bill gives too much power

Updated: Thursday, 08 Oct 2009, 4:40 PM EDT

Published : Thursday, 08 Oct 2009, 4:40 PM EDT

* Veronica Cintron

* Matt Caron

CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) - A bill that would give the state the power to isolate those infected by the H1N1 virus passed the House on Thursday.

Public health officials would also be able to set up quarantines to contain an outbreak.

In addition, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health would have the power to evacuate public buildings and even close access to contaminated areas.

We caught up with House Speaker Robert DeLeo in Chicopee on Wednesday to ask him what the bill entails.

"In terms of requirements for quarantine and what role hospitals and medical centers will play."

Critics of the bill say it gives government too much power.

The Senate approved an earlier version of the bill in April. Now, the bill heads to the Governors desk.

Run for the hills.... Oh wait I'm already there.

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You are all going to like this one.

Critics: H1N1 bill gives too much power

Updated: Thursday, 08 Oct 2009, 4:40 PM EDT

Published : Thursday, 08 Oct 2009, 4:40 PM EDT

* Veronica Cintron

* Matt Caron

CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) - A bill that would give the state the power to isolate those infected by the H1N1 virus passed the House on Thursday.

Public health officials would also be able to set up quarantines to contain an outbreak.

In addition, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health would have the power to evacuate public buildings and even close access to contaminated areas.

We caught up with House Speaker Robert DeLeo in Chicopee on Wednesday to ask him what the bill entails.

"In terms of requirements for quarantine and what role hospitals and medical centers will play."

Critics of the bill say it gives government too much power.

The Senate approved an earlier version of the bill in April. Now, the bill heads to the Governors desk.

Run for the hills.... Oh wait I'm already there.

The nanny state strikes again.

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The reports I'm getting is that deaths from N1H1 are on the rise. Multiple deaths in multiple states.

I'm only thinking that it's going to get worse before it gets better.

I'm going to take the vaccination when it is offered to me but I will not go out and seek it out.

I wonder how much it will cost????

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